What Happened to African National Congress (ANC)?

The African National Congress (ANC), once an unshakeable force in South African politics, has undergone a profound transformation in recent years, culminating in the loss of its parliamentary majority in the 2024 national elections. This marked the first time since the end of apartheid in 1994 that the party failed to secure over 50% of the vote, obtaining approximately 40.18%. This electoral setback necessitated the formation of a Government of National Unity (GNU), bringing together the ANC with its long-standing rival, the Democratic Alliance (DA), and the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), among others.

The decline of the ANC's electoral dominance can be attributed to a confluence of factors. Public dissatisfaction has grown significantly due to persistent issues such as high unemployment, widespread corruption, and inadequate service delivery in municipalities. The rise of new political formations, notably the uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) Party led by former President Jacob Zuma, further fragmented the ANC's traditional voter base, particularly in key provinces like KwaZulu-Natal. The party's internal divisions and factional battles have also contributed to a perception of disarray and a weakened ability to govern effectively.

Key turning points include the 2021 local government elections, where the ANC's national vote share dropped below 50% for the first time, securing only 46%. This was a clear warning sign of eroding support. The 55th National Conference in December 2022 saw Cyril Ramaphosa re-elected as ANC president, fending off a challenge from Zweli Mkhize, and Fikile Mbalula elected as Secretary-General, signaling a continuation of the 'renewal' agenda. However, the most significant turning point was the 2024 national election, which forced the ANC into an unprecedented coalition arrangement.

The consequences of these developments are far-reaching. South Africa is now operating under its first national coalition government, which introduces new dynamics of consensus-building and potential policy compromises. While the GNU aims to ensure stability and address national challenges, it also highlights the ANC's diminished power and the need to collaborate with parties holding different ideological stances. Economically, the ANC-DA coalition has been favored by businesses and investors, with expectations of continued reforms, such as promoting private sector involvement in renewable energy.

As of September 30, 2026, the ANC is intensely focused on the upcoming local government elections scheduled for November 4, 2026. The party is grappling with significant internal battles over candidate lists, with allegations of unlawful removals and administrative blunders. These issues are seen as symptoms of deeper leadership paralysis and factionalism, potentially costing the party crucial votes. President Ramaphosa, who was inaugurated for his second term on June 19, 2024, and the ANC leadership have outlined priorities for 2026, including fixing local municipalities, boosting economic growth, and combating crime and corruption. The party is also facing calls for investigation into alleged corruption within the Democratic Alliance, its coalition partner, indicating ongoing political tensions. The outcome of the 2026 local elections will be a critical test of the ANC's ability to halt its decline and rebuild public confidence.