What Happened to Republic of Armenia?

Armenia's recent history is largely defined by the dramatic conclusion of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and a subsequent reorientation of its foreign policy. In September 2023, Azerbaijan launched a decisive offensive, leading to the rapid collapse of the self-proclaimed Republic of Artsakh and the mass exodus of nearly the entire ethnic Armenian population from Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia. This event, which saw the region fully integrated into Azerbaijan by January 2024, fundamentally altered the geopolitical balance in the South Caucasus and left Armenia grappling with a significant refugee crisis and a profound sense of insecurity.

The aftermath of the 2023 conflict prompted Armenia to critically re-evaluate its traditional security alliance with Russia. Citing a lack of support during recent escalations, Armenia formally froze its participation in the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) in February 2024 and subsequently expelled Russian border guards from Yerevan's Zvartnots International Airport in March 2024. This distancing from Moscow has been further codified in Armenia's 2026-2031 government program, which downgrades Russia's status from a 'strategic ally' to a 'transforming and deepening partnership,' reflecting Yerevan's desire for greater foreign policy autonomy. Russia, however, continues to exert significant economic and military leverage over Armenia, including a military base in Gyumri and substantial trade ties.

Simultaneously, Armenia has embarked on an ambitious pivot towards the European Union and the West. In July 2024, the EU initiated a dialogue on visa liberalization with Armenia, followed by the presentation of a Visa Liberalization Action Plan in November 2025. A major turning point occurred in April 2025 when Armenian President Vahagn Khachaturyan signed a law legally initiating the country's process of accession to the European Union, a move supported by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. This deepening partnership was further solidified with the adoption of a new Strategic Agenda for the EU-Armenia Partnership in December 2025 and the first-ever EU-Armenia Summit in Yerevan in May 2026, where the EU pledged significant financial and security assistance.

Peace talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan have progressed, albeit with persistent challenges. A provisional peace agreement was initialed in Washington in August 2025, mediated by the United States, which included provisions for a transit corridor (dubbed the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, or TRIPP) through southern Armenia connecting mainland Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave. However, full ratification of the agreement hinges on Armenia amending its constitution to remove references that Azerbaijan interprets as territorial claims, a process Prime Minister Pashinyan has committed to initiating with a referendum planned for 2027. As of September 2026, construction on the TRIPP corridor has been delayed to 2027, and Azerbaijan continues to insist on constitutional changes before a final deal is signed.

Domestically, Prime Minister Pashinyan's Civil Contract party secured another parliamentary majority in the June 2026 elections, reinforcing his mandate to pursue the pro-Western and peace-oriented foreign policy. The Armenian economy has shown resilience and robust growth, with GDP expanding by 6.7% in the second quarter of 2026 and economic activity growing 7.7% year-on-year in the first seven months of 2026, exceeding initial forecasts. Growth has been primarily driven by construction, industry, and services, including the IT sector, although agricultural output has declined. Forecasts for Armenia's GDP growth in 2026 range from 5% to 5.5%, with inflation remaining a key area of focus for the Central Bank.