What Happened to Brazil Election?

The recent history of Brazilian elections is largely defined by the deeply polarized 2022 general election. In October 2022, former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers' Party (PT) narrowly defeated incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in a runoff, securing 50.90% of the vote against Bolsonaro's 49.10%. This marked Lula's return to the presidency for a third non-consecutive term, a historic achievement. Bolsonaro, a right-wing populist, did not formally concede defeat but agreed to a transition of power.

The aftermath of the 2022 election was tumultuous. On January 8, 2023, just a week after Lula's inauguration, thousands of Bolsonaro's supporters stormed and ransacked Brazil's Supreme Court, National Congress, and Planalto Presidential Palace in Brasília. These rioters, fueled by baseless claims of electoral fraud, demanded military intervention to overturn the election results. The attacks drew widespread international condemnation and led to numerous arrests and investigations into a broader coup plot.

Jair Bolsonaro faced severe legal consequences for his actions and rhetoric surrounding the 2022 election. On June 30, 2023, Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (TSE) declared him ineligible to hold public office until 2030, citing abuse of political power and misuse of media for attacking the electoral system. Further, on September 11, 2025, the Supreme Federal Court (STF) sentenced Bolsonaro to 27 years and 3 months in prison for his involvement in plotting a military coup. He is currently under house arrest. His eldest son, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, has since emerged as the primary political heir to the Bolsonarista movement.

Lula's third term, which began in January 2023, has focused on economic growth, social policies, and environmental protection. The economy saw significant gains in 2023 and 2024, though growth slowed in 2025. His administration reintroduced the permanent valorization of the minimum wage and expanded affirmative action. Brazil also hosted the 2025 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP30) in Belém.

The 2024 municipal elections, held on October 6, 2024, with runoffs on October 27, 2024, served as a barometer for the national political mood. These elections were characterized by less polarization than the 2022 general election but saw an increase in violence against candidates. Center-right and right-wing parties secured a majority of mayoralties, indicating a continued strong presence for conservative forces at the local level. New regulations were introduced to govern AI use in elections, including a ban on deepfakes. A notable outcome was the ineligibility ruling against São Paulo mayoral candidate Pablo Marçal in February 2025 for abuse of power.

As of today, October 4, 2026, Brazil is holding the first round of its general election. Incumbent President Lula da Silva, now 80, is seeking an unprecedented fourth non-consecutive term. His main opponent is Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, who is campaigning on a platform largely continuing his father's policies and has pledged to pardon his father if elected. The race is tight, with polls suggesting a high probability of a runoff election on October 25, 2026. Key voter concerns include public safety, a major banking corruption scandal implicating politicians and Supreme Court justices (including Alexandre de Moraes and Kassio Nunes Marques, the current TSE President), and the state of the economy. The election also involves the election of governors, federal deputies, and two-thirds of the Senate. The influence of U.S. tariffs and the Trump administration's policies on Brazil have also become campaign issues.