What Happened to Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)?

The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), signed on July 14, 2015, aimed to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons by imposing stringent limits on its nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of international sanctions. Under the agreement, Iran committed to reducing its centrifuges, capping uranium enrichment at 3.67% for 15 years, and reducing its enriched uranium stockpile by 98% to under 300 kg. The deal also included an expanded verification regime by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

However, the deal faced significant challenges. On May 8, 2018, the United States, under President Donald Trump, unilaterally withdrew from the JCPOA, citing its perceived flaws, including 'sunset clauses' that would lift restrictions over time, and the deal's failure to address Iran's ballistic missile program and regional malign activities. This withdrawal led to the reimposition of U.S. sanctions, which severely impacted Iran's economy. In response, starting in May 2019, Iran began incrementally breaching its commitments under the deal, increasing uranium enrichment levels and stockpiles.

Key turning points continued into the 2020s. In February 2021, Iran suspended its implementation of the Additional Protocol, further limiting the IAEA's access and monitoring capabilities. Efforts to revive the deal under the Biden administration in 2021-2022 ultimately stalled. By late 2024, the IAEA reported that Iran's expanded enrichment capacity had significantly reduced its 'breakout time' – the time needed to produce enough fissile material for a bomb – to less than two weeks. In March 2025, the IAEA reported a substantial increase in Iran's 60% highly enriched uranium stockpile.

In June 2025, nuclear negotiations between the U.S. and Iran broke down, and the IAEA formally declared Iran non-compliant with its non-proliferation obligations. The following day, Israel launched a military operation targeting Iran's military and nuclear fuel cycle sites, causing substantial damage. In October 2025, Iran officially ended the 2015 JCPOA, declaring all restrictions on its nuclear program void, though Tehran stated it remained open to diplomacy. Concurrently, the E3 (France, Germany, UK) triggered the snapback mechanism, restoring UN sanctions on Iran. The U.S. continued its 'maximum pressure' campaign, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent attributing Iran's December 2025 currency crisis and a major bank collapse to U.S. sanctions.

As of early 2026, the situation remains highly volatile. On March 1, 2026, the U.S. and Israel began a joint military campaign, striking some nuclear fuel cycle sites again. The IAEA reported on February 27, 2026, that it could not verify whether Iran had suspended all enrichment-related activities or the size and composition of its enriched uranium stockpile, noting its knowledge about Iran's nuclear program was diminishing. On April 15, 2026, the U.S. Treasury announced new sanctions targeting Iran's illicit oil transportation infrastructure and stated it would not renew waivers allowing the purchase of some Iranian oil. Most recently, on April 16, 2026, U.S. President Donald Trump claimed the U.S. was 'very close' to a new deal with Iran, stating Iran had agreed to hand over its enriched uranium stockpile, a claim unconfirmed by Iran.