What Happened to Locusts?

Locusts, specifically species like the Desert Locust (Schistocerca gregaria), represent a formidable and ancient threat to agriculture and food security worldwide. In recent years, the intensity and frequency of outbreaks have been significantly impacted by climate change, creating a 'new normal' for affected regions. The devastating 2019-2022 desert locust upsurge in the Greater Horn of Africa and Yemen, which was the worst in decades for some areas like Kenya, highlighted the vulnerability of millions to acute food insecurity. This crisis was largely triggered by an unusual combination of tropical cyclones and sustained heavy rainfall, which provided ideal moist soil for egg-laying and abundant vegetation for feeding, leading to explosive population growth.

Since 2024, attention has shifted to persistent and emerging outbreaks in North Africa and parts of Central Asia. Unusually heavy rains in late 2024 and rising temperatures in early 2025 created ideal breeding conditions across the northern Sahel, leading to significant outbreaks in Algeria, Tunisia, and Libya, with caution-level alerts issued by the FAO. By late 2025, a serious desert locust outbreak continued in Northwestern Africa, particularly critical in Mauritania, with forecasts predicting a third generation of breeding and potential spread into other countries in early 2026. This situation materialized, with a major desert locust invasion unfolding in southern Morocco in February 2026, and FAO bulletins in May 2026 warning of further intensification across Morocco, Algeria, and Mauritania, posing a direct threat to cereal harvests.

The underlying cause of these intensified outbreaks is increasingly linked to climate change. Studies published in 2022 and 2024 have demonstrated that a hotter climate and extreme weather events, such as droughts followed by rapid vegetation growth, dramatically increase the intensity of locust swarms and are likely to expand their habitats into new regions. The Indian Ocean Dipole, a climate system similar to El Niño, has been identified as a key factor, with its positive phases causing heavy rainfall conducive to locust proliferation. This interplay of climatic factors makes early detection and rapid response crucial, yet challenging due to the remoteness and sometimes conflict-prone nature of breeding areas.

In response, international bodies like the FAO, through its Desert Locust Information Service (DLIS), continue to employ advanced surveillance systems, integrating satellite imagery, AI-driven models, drones, and GIS platforms for real-time monitoring and forecasting. Control operations typically involve ground and aerial spraying of insecticides, though there's a growing emphasis on environmentally friendly alternatives like biopesticides where possible. Beyond chemical interventions, innovative research is also yielding new preventive strategies. A study published in January 2026 demonstrated that improving soil health by enriching it with nitrogen can significantly reduce locust damage, making crops less appealing to the insects and doubling yields in real-world farming environments in Senegal. This offers a promising, sustainable approach to complement existing control measures and mitigate the long-term impact of locust crises on vulnerable communities.