What Happened to Republic of Madagascar?

Madagascar has experienced significant political upheaval in recent years, culminating in a military-backed transition in late 2025. Following a contested presidential election in November 2023, where incumbent Andry Rajoelina secured re-election amidst an opposition boycott and low voter turnout, public discontent simmered. By September 2025, mass protests erupted across the island, largely driven by a 'Generation Z' movement, fueled by chronic electricity and water shortages, rising prices, and allegations of corruption.

The situation escalated dramatically in October 2025 when elements of the military, specifically the elite CAPSAT unit, sided with the demonstrators. President Rajoelina subsequently fled the country, and parliament voted for his impeachment. Colonel Michael Randrianirina then declared a military takeover, establishing a transitional authority known as the Council of the Presidency for the Re-Foundation of the Republic, with a pledge for constitutional reform and elections within two years. This unconstitutional change of government led to Madagascar's suspension from the African Union.

In November 2025, a new, largely civilian cabinet was formed under the transitional government, led by Prime Minister Herintsalama Rajaonarivelo, promising stability and addressing the issues that sparked the protests. However, this government proved short-lived. In March 2026, transitional leader Michael Randrianirina dismissed Prime Minister Rajaonarivelo and the entire cabinet, subsequently appointing Mamitiana Rajaonarison as the new Prime Minister. This move reflected ongoing internal political tensions and a reassertion of control by the transitional leadership, with plans to create a 'Fifth Republic' constitution and hold elections by October 2027.

Economically, Madagascar faces persistent challenges. While real GDP growth is projected at 4.0% in 2026, supported by agriculture, extractive industries, tourism, and telecommunications, the country grapples with a high poverty rate, with 75% of the population living below the poverty line in 2022. The economic outlook is further complicated by a drastic reduction in US aid and the imposition of a 47% tariff on Malagasy exports to the US in 2024, which is expected to weigh on exports and potentially lead to deindustrialization and increased poverty. Despite these challenges, S&P Global Ratings affirmed Madagascar's 'B-/B' ratings in January 2026, citing easing near-term risks post-coup and continued support from most international donors.

Humanitarian and environmental crises remain critical. Madagascar is one of the countries most exposed to climate extremes, experiencing prolonged droughts, cyclones, and floods since 2020, leading to widespread food insecurity. As of April 2026, approximately 1.6 million people face acute food insecurity, with over 110,000 experiencing emergency hunger. Deforestation rates remain high, threatening the island's unique biodiversity, 90% of which is endemic. In a bid to improve connectivity, Starlink is set to launch direct-to-cell services in partnership with Airtel in May 2026, aiming to connect millions, particularly in underserved rural areas.

Diplomatically, the transitional government under Randrianirina has shown a notable pivot towards Russia. In February 2026, Randrianirina made Moscow his first official foreign visit, where closer ties were emphasized, followed by reports of Russian military assistance. This rapprochement continued in May 2026 with the appointment of a new ambassador to Moscow and a delegation from Madagascar's electoral commission receiving training in Russia, alongside plans for high-level participation in a Moscow security forum. This strategic reorientation is being closely watched by international observers, particularly given Russia's expanding influence in Africa.