What Happened to Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud?

Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud, widely known as MBS, continues to be the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, holding the titles of Crown Prince and Prime Minister. His tenure has been defined by the ambitious Vision 2030, a comprehensive plan launched in 2016 to diversify the Saudi economy away from oil, modernize society, and enhance the Kingdom's global standing.

A significant development in early 2026 has been the recalibration of Vision 2030. In February 2026, Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund (PIF), a key vehicle for MBS's reforms with assets of $925 billion, announced a new five-year strategy for 2026-2030. This blueprint marks the most substantial shift since Vision 2030's inception, pivoting towards industrial development, mineral extraction, artificial intelligence, and tourism. Several high-profile "giga-projects," such as the futuristic mirrored city "The Line" within NEOM and the cube-shaped Mukaab skyscraper in Riyadh, are being scaled back or fundamentally reconfigured due to mounting fiscal pressures and cost overruns. The new strategy emphasizes "industrial execution" over "visionary experimentation" and seeks to attract more third-party capital from global asset managers to de-risk the sovereign portfolio.

Economically, Saudi Arabia is projected to experience robust growth, with its GDP expected to expand by approximately 4.7% in 2026, driven by both oil sector normalization and sustained non-oil sector expansion. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts similar growth, supported by stronger private consumption, investment, and ongoing reforms. Key reforms include the introduction of competitive corporate tax structures within Special Economic Zones (SEZs) and streamlined workforce regulations, designed to attract multinational corporations and global talent. Non-oil GDP is projected to average 4.4% annually from 2025 onwards, reflecting the Kingdom's commitment to diversification.

In foreign policy, MBS has maintained a complex and evolving relationship with the United States. Following President Donald Trump's second term, US-Saudi ties gained new momentum. Trump's May 2025 visit to Riyadh resulted in agreements worth at least $300 billion, primarily in defense and artificial intelligence. A landmark visit by MBS to Washington in November 2025 culminated in Saudi Arabia's designation as a "major non-NATO ally," a Strategic Defense Agreement, and plans for F-35 fighter jet sales to Riyadh. This strategic upgrade was notably decoupled from the long-sought Israeli normalization, indicating a transactional focus on US economic and security priorities.

Indeed, MBS has reportedly turned away from immediate normalization with Israel. Despite previous US inducements, Saudi Arabia's stance has hardened, influenced by domestic opposition, religious leaders, and strong public sentiment against Israel following the October 2023 Gaza conflict. Saudi officials have emphasized that any normalization deal would require a "real path" to a Palestinian state.

Regionally, MBS is actively involved in navigating escalating tensions. As of March 1, 2026, he engaged in phone calls with regional leaders and President Trump to condemn Iranian missile attacks on Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states, underscoring ongoing instability and Saudi Arabia's firm stance against Iranian aggression. Concurrently, a significant rift has emerged between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Reports from February 2026 indicate that MBS urged President Trump to consider sanctions against the UAE due to its support for the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan's civil war. This competition for regional influence has led to a deterioration in relations, including a reported Saudi bombing of an Emirati shipment to Yemen in December 2025.

Despite the economic reforms and diplomatic engagements, human rights concerns continue to shadow MBS's leadership. Human rights organizations, including Human Rights Watch, criticized his November 2025 visit to Washington, highlighting his alleged culpability in the 2018 murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi and the ongoing repression of dissent within the Kingdom, including record numbers of executions and lengthy prison sentences for activists.