What Happened to Federal Republic of Nigeria?

Nigeria has been at a critical juncture, marked by ambitious economic reforms and persistent security challenges under President Bola Tinubu's administration, which began in May 2023. A key turning point was the immediate removal of the costly fuel subsidy, a decision lauded by international bodies but which triggered an immediate surge in petrol prices, transportation costs, and overall inflation, leading to significant economic hardship for many Nigerians. This was followed by efforts to unify the country's multiple exchange rates, which initially led to a sharp depreciation of the Naira but aimed for long-term stability and attracted foreign investment.

Economically, 2026 presents a mixed but cautiously optimistic outlook. While S&P Global raised its forecast for Nigeria's average inflation rate in 2026 to 16.9% and cut GDP growth forecasts to 3.7%, other projections from Verraki, PwC, and the African Development Bank anticipate GDP growth between 4.0% and 4.7%, driven by stronger crude oil earnings, continued FX reforms, and expansion in non-oil sectors. Inflation, though still high, showed signs of moderating year-on-year in early 2026 (15.06% in February), but month-on-month increases, particularly in food prices, indicate persistent pressures. The Naira, after early 2026 depreciation, showed signs of stabilization, with projections for it to trade within a range of N1,365 to N1,520 per dollar, supported by improved foreign reserves and ongoing market reforms.

Security remains a formidable challenge. While the government has made strides in preventing insurgent groups like Boko Haram and ISWAP from controlling large territories, insecurity has diversified and spread geographically. The North-East still faces threats from extremist groups, but the North-West and North-Central regions are severely impacted by armed banditry, mass kidnappings for ransom, and farmer-herder conflicts. These security issues lead to loss of life, displacement, and significant economic disruption, particularly affecting agriculture and business confidence.

Politically, 2026 is a pre-election year leading up to the 2027 general elections. The political landscape is characterized by a more concentrated power structure under the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), with concerns about the weakening of informal norms and increased reliance on identity politics. The Senate passed a bill for state police in early 2026, aiming to improve local policing and address security challenges. Socially, Nigeria faces a severe food insecurity crisis, with projections that nearly 35 million people could face acute hunger in 2026, exacerbated by conflict, displacement, and climate-related pressures. The government is attempting to address these issues through various reforms and increased investment in security and infrastructure, with President Tinubu asserting that reforms have saved the economy from bankruptcy and are leading to recovery.