What Happened to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan?

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, born February 26, 1954, has been the dominant figure in Turkish politics for over two decades, first as Prime Minister from 2003 to 2014, and then as President since 2014. His early career saw him serve as Mayor of Istanbul from 1994 to 1998, where he gained popularity for addressing urban issues. He co-founded the Justice and Development Party (AKP) in 2001, leading it to a landslide victory in 2002.

His presidency, particularly after the 2017 constitutional referendum that transitioned Turkey to an executive presidential system, has centralized immense power in his office. This period has been characterized by ambitious infrastructure projects, an assertive foreign policy, and efforts to boost Turkey's global standing. However, it has also faced criticism regarding democratic backsliding, human rights, and judicial independence.

A significant turning point in recent years was the March 31, 2024, local elections, where the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) achieved an unexpected landslide victory, winning 35 out of 81 provinces and securing major cities like Istanbul and Ankara. This outcome, largely attributed to public discontent over high inflation and economic challenges, marked the first time the CHP garnered the most votes nationwide in over 40 years and was widely seen as a clear defeat for Erdoğan's AKP. The incumbent Istanbul Mayor, Ekrem İmamoğlu, secured a decisive re-election, solidifying his position as a strong potential presidential candidate for 2028.

Economically, Turkey has grappled with high inflation, which peaked over 80% in late 2022 and was around 70% in early 2024. However, the government has since implemented a disinflation program with tight monetary and fiscal policies, leading to a reduction in inflation to 30.9% by December 2025, with projections of 23% by the end of 2026. GDP growth is anticipated to be moderate, around 3.1-4.2% for 2025-2026. President Erdoğan declared 2026 a 'year of reform,' pledging a legislative agenda focused on social issues and economic stability.

In foreign policy, Turkey under Erdoğan has pursued a flexible, multi-tracked approach, expanding its diplomatic reach and defense industrial cooperation. The fall of the Assad regime in Syria in December 2024 was viewed as a major victory for Turkey. As of July 7, 2026, Erdoğan is actively involved in international affairs, hosting a NATO summit in Ankara and holding a high-level meeting with US President Donald Trump to discuss issues such as the F-35 fighter jet program and regional developments. This engagement highlights Turkey's continued strategic importance on the global stage.

Looking towards the next presidential elections, scheduled for May 2028, Erdoğan faces constitutional term limits. While he has previously suggested he might step down, there is significant speculation and discussion among his advisers about potential constitutional amendments or calling an early election to allow him to seek a third term. This debate is intensified by recent reports in June and July 2026 concerning Erdoğan's health, with some sources alleging increasingly frequent verbal slips, confusion, and fatigue, leading to questions about his performance and fueling a potential power struggle within the ruling establishment. The government has consistently dismissed these health rumors.