What Happened to Federal Republic of Somalia?

Somalia's journey in the mid-2020s is characterized by a complex interplay of security, political, economic, and humanitarian challenges. Following decades of civil war and state collapse, the Federal Republic of Somalia has been working towards stability, but progress remains fragile.

Security and Political Landscape: The Islamist militant group Al-Shabaab continues to pose the most significant security threat. After a concerted counter-terrorism effort in 2022-2023, Al-Shabaab launched a major offensive in 2025, recapturing significant territory in central Somalia and reversing many government gains. As of June 2026, the conflict is largely at an impasse, with neither side able to secure a decisive upper hand, though the government has regrouped to secure areas around Mogadishu. The African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) completed its phased withdrawal in December 2024, replaced by the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) in January 2025, which continues to support Somali Security Forces. However, AUSSOM faces funding shortfalls and operational constraints.

Politically, Somalia is experiencing significant fragmentation. The transition towards democratic elections, planned for 2026, has been fraught with difficulties. Amendments to the constitution regarding universal suffrage were approved by parliament in March 2026, but this move has deepened divisions, with opposition actors and several federal member states rejecting the changes. Puntland, a key federal member state, withdrew its recognition of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud's administration in May 2026, citing the expiration of his original term and constitutional disputes. This has led to a constitutional crisis and stalled talks between the government and opposition, raising concerns about the legitimacy of federal institutions. Tensions between the federal government and regional states, including Puntland and Jubaland, have also led to localized clashes.

Economic Developments: A major positive development was Somalia reaching the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Completion Point in December 2023, leading to the cancellation of approximately $4.5 billion in external debt. This was followed by further debt relief agreements, including $1.1 billion from the US in November 2024 and 99% of $2 billion from the Paris Club by December 2025. This significantly reduced external debt from 64% of GDP in 2018 to 4.9% in 2025. Somalia's economy grew by an estimated 3.1% in 2025, down from 4% in 2023-2024, primarily due to declining foreign aid, drought, and rising living costs. Projections for 2026 estimate real GDP growth at around 2.8% to 3.1%. The government is pushing for greater economic self-reliance and increased domestic revenue collection.

Humanitarian Crisis: The humanitarian situation remains dire. In 2025, Somalia experienced a prolonged drought, followed by floods, devastating agricultural production and causing widespread displacement. As of 2026, 4.8 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance, with nearly 1.9 million children projected to be affected by malnutrition, including almost half a million with severe acute malnutrition. This crisis is severely compounded by a global funding crisis for humanitarian work, leading to unprecedented cuts in aid. Over 200 health and nutrition facilities have closed, resulting in a 32% increase in children admitted to stabilization centers for severe acute malnutrition in the first six months of 2026 compared to the previous year. The ongoing conflict, climate shocks (including an anticipated record-strength El Niño threatening severe flooding), and high food prices continue to drive food insecurity and displacement.