What Happened to The ISIS Insurgency (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria)?
The ISIS insurgency, which once controlled vast territories in Iraq and Syria and declared a caliphate in 2014, has been territorially defeated but continues as a decentralized global network. While its operational tempo in Iraq and Syria has significantly declined in 2026, the group and its affiliates remain a potent threat, exploiting regional instability and expanding their reach, particularly in Africa and Afghanistan, and inspiring attacks worldwide.
Quick Answer
The ISIS insurgency, though territorially defeated in Iraq and Syria by 2019, persists as a global, decentralized threat. As of August 2026, the group's activities in its core territories have seen a historic low in attack numbers, partly due to the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Syria and the transition of the coalition mission in Iraq. However, its affiliates, particularly in Africa (ISWAP) and Afghanistan (ISKP), have strengthened, expanded their operational reach, and continue to pose a significant threat, utilizing advanced propaganda and even drones. The UN continues to warn of ISIS's serious threat to international peace and security, with recent ISIS-inspired attacks and foiled plots occurring in Europe and Afghanistan in 2026.
📊Key Facts
📅Complete Timeline14 events
Formation of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL)
Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, leader of al-Qaeda's branch in Iraq, announced the merger of his group with al-Qaeda's Syrian franchise, forming ISIL, later known as ISIS.
Capture of Mosul and Declaration of Caliphate
ISIS captured Mosul, Iraq's second-largest city, and declared the establishment of a caliphate across territories in Iraq and Syria, with al-Baghdadi as its leader.
U.S.-led Coalition Begins Airstrikes
In response to ISIS's rapid territorial gains and atrocities, the U.S. initiated airstrikes in Iraq, marking the beginning of a broader international coalition effort.
Iraq Declares Victory Over ISIS
Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi declared victory over ISIS in Iraq, signaling the end of the group's territorial caliphate in the country.
Territorial Defeat in Syria (Baghouz)
The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), backed by the U.S.-led coalition, captured Baghouz, the last territorial stronghold of ISIS in Syria, marking the end of its physical caliphate.
Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi Killed
ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi died during a U.S. special forces raid in Idlib province, Syria, dealing a significant blow to the group's leadership.
Fall of Bashar al-Assad's Regime in Syria
The collapse of Assad's regime created a new security landscape in Syria, with concerns that ISIS could exploit the resulting governance vacuum to regroup.
New Orleans Truck Attack (ISIS-inspired)
An alleged ISIS-inspired individual drove a pickup truck into a crowd in New Orleans, killing 15 people and injuring many others, highlighting the group's continued ability to inspire attacks.
End of Coalition Military Mission in Iraq
The U.S. and Iraqi governments announced the end of the coalition's military mission in Iraq, transitioning to an advise and assist role, with some U.S. forces remaining.
SDF Defeated in Northeast Syria, Concerns over ISIS Resurgence
America's Kurdish-led partners (SDF) were defeated in an offensive by Syria's transitional government, leading to chaos at ISIS prisons and concerns over a renewed ISIS threat as U.S. forces began withdrawal.
U.S. Africa Command Kills ISIS Global Operations Director in Nigeria
U.S. Africa Command, in coordination with Nigerian forces, conducted an operation that killed Abu-Bilal al-Minuki, ISIS's director of global operations, in northeastern Nigeria.
U.S. Concludes Withdrawal from Syria
The U.S. concluded its withdrawal of ground forces from northeastern Syria, with the last known U.S. drone strike in Syria occurring on this date, marking a new chapter for counter-ISIS efforts.
String of ISIS-Inspired Attacks and Thwarted Plots in Europe
Europe experienced an uptick in arrests, thwarted plots (e.g., synagogue attack in France), and executed attacks (e.g., stabbing spree in Paris, festival attack in Germany) believed to be connected with ISIS or Islamic extremism.
UN Warns of Growing ISIS Threat Globally
The United Nations warned that ISIS continues to pose a serious threat to international peace and security, noting that its affiliates, particularly in Africa, have strengthened capabilities and expanded operational reach.
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🔍Deep Dive Analysis
The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), also known as Daesh or ISIL, emerged from the chaos of the Iraq War and the Syrian Civil War, evolving from al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI). It capitalized on political instability and sectarian divisions, gaining significant territorial control in Iraq and Syria by 2014 and declaring a global caliphate under Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. At its peak, ISIS controlled territory larger than Great Britain, ruling over millions and attracting tens of thousands of foreign fighters, while also orchestrating and inspiring numerous brutal terrorist attacks globally.
The international community, led by the U.S., formed a coalition to counter ISIS, launching extensive military operations. This led to the gradual rollback of ISIS's territorial control, culminating in Iraq declaring victory in December 2017 and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) announcing the territorial defeat of the caliphate in Baghouz, Syria, in March 2019. The death of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in October 2019 further degraded the group's central leadership.
Despite these significant setbacks, ISIS adapted, transforming into a decentralized insurgent force. By 2024, UN reports noted heightened concerns about ISIS threats emanating from Afghanistan and an uptick in activity in Syria and Iraq, even as its territorial caliphate was dismantled. The fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria in December 2024 created new security vacuums, which ISIS sought to exploit, though concerns of a full resurgence in Syria have not fully materialized in 2025 as attack numbers decreased compared to 2024.
As of 2026, the ISIS insurgency presents an evolving threat. The U.S. concluded its withdrawal from Syria in April 2026, and the military mission of the coalition in Iraq transitioned, with the U.S. aiming to maintain an advise and assist capacity. This shift has led to a dramatic decline in ISIS attacks in Syria, reaching historic lows in May 2026, with only eight attacks recorded. However, Iraqi intelligence warned in January 2026 of a significant increase in ISIS fighter numbers in Syria, from an estimated 2,000 to 10,000, though other reports suggested a lower figure of around 3,000 in Iraq and Syria combined.
The group's global network of affiliates remains a primary concern. The Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) is identified as ISIS's most active affiliate, demonstrating increasing capabilities, including the use of commercial drones. The Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) in Afghanistan continues to pose a capable threat, with the intent to incite attacks beyond Afghanistan. In May 2026, U.S. Africa Command successfully eliminated Abu-Bilal al-Minuki, ISIS's director of global operations, in Nigeria, highlighting ongoing counter-terrorism efforts against its global leadership. Europe also experienced a string of ISIS-inspired attacks and thwarted plots in July 2026, underscoring the persistent threat of online radicalization and indirect influence. The UN continues to emphasize that ISIS exploits fragile security environments and uses social media, encrypted messaging, and even AI for propaganda and recruitment.
What If...?
Explore alternate histories. What if The ISIS Insurgency (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria) made different choices?